Survival of the Fittest: Week 1

7453605Along with the return of football and fantasy football comes the renewal of another contest that can be completely addicting as well: Survival Football. The ultimate key of survival football is to pick one team each week that you feel will win, and hope that they do win, because if the team you pick loses you are out of the competition. And you can’t pick a team more than once during the season. Lately a new type of survival football has been added, though, called double elimination, where you can make one incorrect choice and still continue in the game.

This season I will be giving you advice on surviving this tough test, and possibly winning your competition at the same time. There are three things to remember before you start choosing your team each week, though.

1. Pick the team that has the biggest possibility of victory.
2. Avoid the timeless tactic of “saving teams” (not picking a team because you want to choose them later in the season). You might not get the chance to get to that point if you try and save them now.
3. Beware “trap” games (when a matchup looks too good to be true. It often is).

The biggest possibility of victory in week one means look at all the teams that went to the playoffs last season, see what they did to make their teams even better over the offseason, and figure out if they hold a significant edge over their opponents this week. Then decide who has the biggest edge over their opponent and go with that team. Just remember not to pick any team that is playing another playoff team from last year. This means that your options in week one are:

PHILADELPHIA (playing Jacksonville)
KANSAS CITY (playing Tennessee)
NEW ENGLAND (playing Miami)
SAN FRANCISCO (playing Dallas)
CAROLINA (playing Tampa Bay)
NEW ORLEANS (playing Atlanta)
SAN DIEGO (playing Arizona)
CINCINNATI (playing Baltimore)

Then X out the teams playing divisional games because those teams know each other too well and whatever advantage a team might have otherwise gets thrown out the window. This brings your legitimate team possibilities down to the top 4 of Philadelphia, Kansas City, San Francisco, and San Diego. Now take the road teams out of the equation. The numbers show that home teams have higher probabilities of winning. That brings the number of teams down to two, and I don’t think you can go wrong with either one.

Your survival choice in week one should be either Philadelphia or Kansas City. Both teams are playing at home against teams in transition. They can both play to their strengths (Philadelphia on offense, and Kansas City on defense), and the possibility of them coming out on top is high. I’m going with Philadelphia because I like that high-flying Eagles offense, and I think McCoy will shred that Jaguar defense.

Go with Philadelphia or Kansas City for week one. You won’t be disappointed.

The Fantasy Ace

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s