Well, hopefully you’ve gotten through to week 3 unscathed in survival football. It only gets harder from here. In my double elimination survival league that started off with 22 players, only 7 of us are still undefeated after week 2. Several lost the first week by picking Chicago, and a host of others went down last week with the trio of New Orleans, San Francisco, and Tampa Bay. Those were classic trap games. Ask yourself this question: if Tampa Bay wasn’t playing St. Louis would you have gone anywhere near them? Of course not. So why pick them to win last week?
As you know, I went with Denver and they took care of business, not without some sweat though on my part. Just like week one with Philadelphia it looked a bit dicey for a little bit, but the better team won in the end, and I remain undefeated in survival play. Other undefeated players in my league went with Washington, Green Bay, Houston, and Arizona. That Green Bay game did not answer any questions for me about their team, though. Still a work in progress, and no way am I picking them this week against the Lions.
Remember my simple rules for survival:
1. Pick the team that has the biggest possibility of victory.
2. Avoid the timeless tactic of “saving teams” (not picking a team because you want to choose them later in the season). You might not get the chance to get to that point if you try and save them now.
3. Beware “trap” games (when a matchup looks too good to be true. It often is).
So, who has the biggest possibility of victory this week? There are several teams in the league that usually get the job done when faced with a vastly inferior opponent, and others that play down to the other team’s level. Now, I’m not saying I think the Patriots are going to the Super Bowl this year but they have the perfect run game to take down the hapless Raiders’ defense, and they are also superior in the turnover department. They lost a close one to Miami, but Oakland isn’t Miami, and the Pats are at home. That’s a recipe for success.
Possible trap games this week:
San Diego vs. Buffalo – There’s inevitably a letdown after an emotional victory like the one the Chargers had against the Seahawks last week.
Tennessee vs. Cincinnati – The Bengals systematically took apart Atlanta at home last week, and Tennessee lost a huge one to Dallas. Too many people are going to say the Bengals are the best team in the AFC at the moment, but how many times in recent memory have they suffered a surprising loss when they were playing well?
St. Louis vs. Dallas – Speaking of those Cowboys, you might be tempted to get on their bandwagon after the easy win vs. Tennessee, but Romo is still turnover prone, and the Rams are coming off a big win of their own. Watch out.
That’s why I’m going with New England this week, but if you’ve already used them, you might want to take a chance on the Thursday night showdown between division foes. Atlanta looked bad against that Cincinnati defense, but this is a “get right” game facing a Tampa defense that hasn’t really been able to stop anyone so far. The Falcons should win at home. The same is true for the Saints if they can play marginally better offense. I don’t bet against Drew Brees at home.
The Fantasy Ace