Ace Picks: Week 11

Here are my picks for Week 10…

THURSDAY NIGHT

Buffalo @ MIAMI – These two teams are miraculously both still fighting for a playoff chance, and both will treat this contest exactly like that — a playoff game. Both defenses have been solid, but Miami’s has been otherwordly over the past month, and that is what will make a difference on Thursday night. Pick: MIAMI.

SUNDAY GAMES

Philadelphia @ GREEN BAY – Both teams are hot right now, but do I really want to pick against Aaron Rodgers at home at this point? It was actually an intriguing decision regardless, though, because of that Eagles defense that can get after the quarterback and force turnovers. If it turns into an offensive slugfest I think the Packers win it, but it will be close either way, and the Eagles could keep it close with the defense. Pack in a close one. Pick: GREEN BAY.

Atlanta @ CAROLINA – Can I just say that Atlanta is on the road and leave it at that? At some point they will have to find a way to win a road game to get to the playoffs (I can’t believe we’re still talking about playoff possibilities with this team) and this would be the perfect time to pull one out, but I can’t overlook Matt Ryan’s abysmal road woes. Until he proves me otherwise I can’t pick Atlanta away from home. Pick: CAROLINA.

Minnesota @ CHICAGO – On the flipside of that equation is Chicago, who hasn’t so much as won a game at home this season. Luckily their road record is solid and keeps them at least within hailing distance, but their past few games have been just awful. This is of course when Cutler finally steps up and continues being his inconsistent self by having a monster game — at home — against a Minnesota team that isn’t that great. Pick: CHICAGO.

HOUSTON @ Cleveland – Are these Browns for real? Want to talk about consistency? After blowing out the Steelers they lost to the Jaguars (the JAGUARS), so coming off a dismantling of the Bengals in primetime last Thursday night, what will they do for an encore? I think they lose against an ailing Houston team that really has nothing holding it back. I think either Foster or Blue will dominate against that Cleveland defensive line and score big points. The Browns won’t be able to keep up, even at home. Pick: HOUSTON.

Seattle @ KANSAS CITY – All this running by the Seahawks lately (particularly by Russell Wilson) has done well to mask that their aerial attack just isn’t working, and now they come up against a strong Kansas City defense that has gotten better as the season has gone on. I don’t like Wilson against that defensive line, and I think they keep him contained, especially at home. Kansas City in a tightly fought contest. Pick: KANSAS CITY.

Cincinnati @ NEW ORLEANS – Sure, the Saints just lost one at home, but it was an overtime loss, and I don’t see them losing two in a row in the Superdome. I agree that Drew Brees hasn’t looked all that “right” lately, but he won’t need to be against a reeling Bengals team, and against a reeling Andy Dalton, who I don’t think will right the ship in this one on the road. Pick: NEW ORLEANS.

SAN FRANCISCO @ NY Giants – When exactly did the Giants give up last week in Seattle? It doesn’t really matter because there is no doubt that all it took was the course of a professional football game for this New York team to fold like a pair of cheap pants. And guess what? San Francisco comes to town riding high after beating the previously unbeaten home Saints at home. Back to back road games will be tough, but all it takes is one big play and the Giants will again go back into their hole for winter. Pick: SAN FRANCISCO.

DENVER @ St. Louis – This is not the same St. Louis team that beat Seattle and San Francisco earlier this season. The most notable movement this week was the Rams deciding to go with Shaun Hill over Austin Davis. It shows they’re nervous about the Broncos, as they should be, but why not go with the horse that brought you than the rusty one who’s been on the bench? I liked Denver anyway, but I like them even more now, even with their return to the running back by committee approach. Pick: DENVER.

Tampa Bay @ WASHINGTON – Which team is truly worse? I don’t know, but I do know this will be a battle between passing games, not running games, so who has the better passing team? With the revolving door at quarterback that is the Bucs’ offense, I don’t know if I trust McCown as much as I do RGIII, who is finally getting his legs back under him in D.C. Pick: WASHINGTON.

Oakland @ SAN DIEGO – Oakland has to win at least one game this season, right? But they won’t do it on the road, which is where they find themselves in week 11. It’s probably the only reason I’m not picking them against a suddenly inconsistent (there’s that word again) Chargers team that has played its worst football lately. The home field will win this one, but it will be surprisingly close. Pick: SAN DIEGO.

Detroit @ ARIZONA – Many pundits are proclaiming the premature death of the Cardinals after the season-ending injury to Carson Palmer, but while Palmer is out the rest of that Arizona team is still playing, and I don’t see why they wouldn’t still play winning football. Drew Stanton is a game manager, and he can keep them in the game against even a stout Lions defense. It will be close, but I think Arizona wins a surprising one. Pick: ARIZONA.

New England @ INDIANAPOLIS – Offense shootout? I think not. Sure, there will be a few big plays, but I like the defenses in this one. With two guys who like to throw the football into tight windows, I like the corners in this one to step up and force a few turnovers. And I think the Colts take advantage of the chances they get. It will be close, and a low-scoring contest, but the Colts take it. Pick: INDIANAPOLIS.

MONDAY NIGHT

PITTSBURGH @ Tennessee – Sure, the Steelers laid an egg in New Jersey last week, but every team’s allowed a couple of those a season, right? Pittsburgh has had their two with the trouncing by the Browns and now the loss to a far inferior team (and Michael Vick). I don’t think they make it three here, even on the road against Tennessee, even against Zach Mettenberger. Pick: PITTSBURGH.

The Fantasy Ace

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