The Rules of Survival: Week 3

635783861522120970--ETS-14I’m 2 for 2 in Survival for the season, and I didn’t really have to hold my breath yet, but a lot of people are out already because the Raiders, Jaguars, Redskins, and Bucs won. An overwhelming number of Survival players picked the Saints to win last week, and I’m still surprised by that much more than they were surprised when the Saints lost to Tampa Bay. New Orleans just hasn’t been good, and they were in Week 1 either, so what made anyone think they would win? No use crying over spilled milk, though. If you’re in a double-elimination league, even if you picked one of these fallen teams you should still be alive to fight again in Week 3.

Things get more difficult now, though, because while we have a bigger sample size there are still teams that have yet to live up to their promise. What to do with them? Well, I’ll do what I always do here and stick with the team that has the biggest probability of winning, which means I start with the home teams.

NY Giants (vs. Washington)
Minnesota (vs. San Diego)
Cleveland (vs. Oakland)
Baltimore (vs. Cincinnati)
Carolina (vs. New Orleans)
Dallas (vs. Atlanta)
Houston (vs. Tampa Bay)
Tennessee (vs. Indianapolis)
St. Louis (vs. Pittsburgh)
New England (vs. Jacksonville)
NY Jets (vs. Philadelphia)
Arizona (vs. San Francisco)
Seattle (vs. Chicago)
Miami (vs. Buffalo)
Detroit (vs. Denver)
Green Bay (vs. Kansas City)

Before I move any further I get rid of the divisional matchups. You know the drill by now. It means that even though I think Arizona will easily handle the 49ers I’m not going to even go there because anything can happen in divisional rivalries. Then I get rid of the games that should be close, based on what the teams have done so far this year (tossup games). In that way I avoid Cleveland and Houston, two popular picks that could easily lose this week. I’m not going to let the loss of Tony Romo get me overly excited about the Cowboys losing, but I’m not going to count on them to win either.

Almost done now, and there are a few more I can rule out. Pittsburgh has been playing lights out this year on offense, and they get Le’Veon Bell back this week. I can’t pick against them. And while Seattle is playing at home, and they’re usually a lock at home, their defense hasn’t been great so far this season. Even again Chicago, with Jimmy Clausen at QB, I can’t back an 0-2 team (which also rules out Detroit). Speaking of an 0-2 team, the game between the Jets and the Eagles looks easy to pick, but that Eagles offense is like a tiger that could be unleashed any time. It may be this week.

That leaves me with New England and Green Bay, and because I’ve already used the Patriots, and because I think both teams have the same high probability of winning at home, I’m good going with the Packers this week. They should handle that Chiefs team at Lambeau Field, and they are my pick this week in Survival.

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