The Rules of Survival: Week 10

Well, all I can say is it’s a good thing I’m in a double elimination Survival League. Even though New Orleans had the biggest probability for victory, there is a reason they pay the games. And maybe, just maybe I should always avoid picking against a team that recently fired its head coach. So I’m sitting at 8-1, and I have no margin for error as we reach Week 10. Here’s how I’ve fared so far:

Week 1: NEW ENGLAND def. Pittsburgh 28-21
Week 2: CINCINNATI def. San Diego 24-19
Week 3: GREEN BAY def. Kansas City 38-28
Week 4: SEATTLE def. Detroit 13-10
Week 5: ATLANTA def. Washington 25-19
Week 6: NY JETS def. Washington 34-20
Week 7: ARIZONA def. Baltimore 26-18
Week 8: CAROLINA def. Indianapolis 29-26
Week 9: NEW ORLEANS lost to Tennessee 34-28

One thing I have to remember is not to overthink things now just because I have one loss on the record. That’s been my downfall previously, but this time I will stick to my metrics and hopefully the game score will follow. As always, I’m going to start with the home teams…

GREEN BAY vs. Detroit
BALTIMORE vs. Jacksonville
ST. LOUIS vs. Chicago
PITTSBURGH vs. Cleveland
TENNESSEE vs. Carolina
WASHINGTON vs. New Orleans
TAMPA BAY vs. Dallas
PHILADELPHIA vs. Miami
OAKLAND vs. Minnesota
DENVER vs. Kansas City
NY GIANTS vs. New England
SEATTLE vs. Arizona
CINCINNATI vs. Houston

Then I eliminate both the home teams I’ve already used and the divisional contests. Next I get rid of home teams hosting an undefeated. Never bet against an undefeated. (Although I really, really want to pick the Giants to knock off the Patriots.) That leaves me with a good number, but I still have to rid myself of home teams with losing records. What’s left are the Raiders, the Eagles, and the Rams. All three teams are 4-4, so there’s a chance all three could lose this week, but I think all three will take care of business. The Raiders barely lost a nailbiter to the Steelers last week, but they’re playing at a high level. The Eagles won in overtime against the Cowboys last week, and looked much better on offense doing so. That continues here. And the Rams have the defense to contain Jay Cutler and the Bears.

So who has the highest probability of victory among these three teams? I think it’s the Eagles, facing a deflated team in Miami who has a regressing quarterback and a poor secondary. So I’m going with the Eagles this week to keep the hot hand and demolish the Dolphins in the City of Brotherly Love.

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