The Rules of Survival: Week 11

Well, that ended poorly, and suddenly I’m out of Survival Football for the year in my double-elimination league, after being perfect through 8 weeks. It was just a crazy week for favored teams, for home teams losing, and for one point games, apparently. But that’s the breaks. Here’s how my picks went down this year:

Week 1: NEW ENGLAND def. Pittsburgh 28-21
Week 2: CINCINNATI def. San Diego 24-19
Week 3: GREEN BAY def. Kansas City 38-28
Week 4: SEATTLE def. Detroit 13-10
Week 5: ATLANTA def. Washington 25-19
Week 6: NY JETS def. Washington 34-20
Week 7: ARIZONA def. Baltimore 26-18
Week 8: CAROLINA def. Indianapolis 29-26
Week 9: NEW ORLEANS lost to Tennessee 34-28
Week 10: PHILADELPHIA lost to Miami 20-19

It’s always tougher to stomach losses in Survival when the margins are so close, and they couldn’t have gotten any closer this week with the Eagles losing by one point at home to the Dolphins. But the show must go on, and I still trust the metrics. There’s just a reason why they play the games, because who knows what will happen? Educated guesses are the best we can do, so for Week 11 I’m going to do just that.

Here are the Top 3 games to focus on this week:

NY Jets @ HOUSTON
San Francisco @ SEATTLE
Indianapolis @ ATLANTA

Houston has rediscovered its mojo on defense (9 straight quarters without allowing an offensive touchdown). While Seattle lost at home last week to Arizona, the 49ers are not the Cardinals. And the Colts are starting Matt Hasselbeck, while the Falcons are fresh from a bye week.

I like the Texans (even with T.J. Yates possibly starting) to take out the Jets, the Seahawks to beat up on San Francisco under the watchful eye of the 12th Man, and the Falcons to handle the Colts by way of Devonta Freeman.

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