So far the only stumble has come from Seattle’s last gasp win against Miami in Week 1, and since then it’s been relatively clear sailing. Some say the first week is always the hardest, and I tend to agree. Except that now we’re on Week 6 and there are a grand total of 5 teams I can’t use for the rest of the season in Survival. Luckily for me (and for you too if you’re still in your Survival pool) there are a host of other teams that can take us through to the end.
We just need to take it one week at a time. Here’s how I’ve done so far:
WEEK 1: SEATTLE (won 12-10)
WEEK 2: DENVER (won 34-20)
WEEK 3: KANSAS CITY (won 24-3)
WEEK 4: MINNESOTA (won 24-10)
WEEK 5: PITTSBURGH (won 31-13)
Here are my basic rules when it comes to Survival…
- Pick the team that has the biggest possibility of victory.
- Avoid the timeless tactic of “saving teams” (not picking a team because you want to choose them later in the season). You might not get to that point if you try and save them now.
- Do your best to pick home teams.
- Beware “trap games” (when a matchup looks too good to be true. It often is).
- Never wait until the last minute to make your selection.
I’ve followed every single rule to the letter every single week, and things are still perfect, but dark clouds are on the horizon. Now that I no longer have the services of the Steelers, the Chiefs, the Vikings, the Broncos (they lost on Thursday anyway), and the Seahawks, it gets trickier from here.
As always, though, I start with the home teams, because home teams have a larger probability of victory than road teams (usually)…
BUFFALO (vs. San Francisco)
CHICAGO (vs. Jacksonville)
DETROIT (vs. LA Rams)
TENNESSEE (vs. Cleveland)
MIAMI (vs. Pittsburgh)
NEW ENGLAND (vs. Cincinnati)
NEW ORLEANS (vs. Carolina)
NY GIANTS (vs. Baltimore)
WASHINGTON (vs. Philadelphia)
OAKLAND (vs. Kansas City)
GREEN BAY (vs. Dallas)
HOUSTON (vs. Indianapolis)
ARIZONA (vs. NY Jets)
Then I eliminate divisional matchups. Teams know each other too well, no matter records. Next I take out teams with losing records because if you’ve lost more games than you’ve won how can I count on your team to win when it counts? Then, finally, I take out teams that have even or losing records at home.
That leaves me with two choices this week: New England, playing host to the Bengals, and the Packers, who get to take on the Dak Attack. The Patriots looked great last week in dispatching the Browns, but it was THE BROWNS. Against the Bengals will they look any less powerful? But can I rely on the Packers to put away one of the hottest teams in the league right now?
It’s Lambeau Field that makes the decision for me, though. The Pack is 2-0 at home so far, and Dallas or no Dallas, that’s better than the Patriots 2-1 at Foxborough.
Pick: GREEN BAY.