Well, that was pretty swift. And the metrics weren’t to blame. I simply went with the wrong one when predicting the team with the biggest possibility of victory. Luckily I’m in a double elimination pool, but that means I no longer have any room for error. I need to use the right metrics down to the minutest detail. Here’s how I’ve done so far:
WEEK 1: SEATTLE (won 12-10)
WEEK 2: DENVER (won 34-20)
WEEK 3: KANSAS CITY (won 24-3)
WEEK 4: MINNESOTA (won 24-10)
WEEK 5: PITTSBURGH (won 31-13)
WEEK 6: GREEN BAY (lost 30-16)
Here are my basic rules when it comes to Survival…
- Pick the team that has the biggest possibility of victory.
- Avoid the timeless tactic of “saving teams” (not picking a team because you want to choose them later in the season). You might not get to that point if you try and save them now.
- Do your best to pick home teams.
- Beware “trap games” (when a matchup looks too good to be true. It often is).
- Never wait until the last minute to make your selection.
These are my possibilities this week (minus the Rams/Giants game because they are in London). I’m going with the home teams as usual:
PHILADELPHIA (vs. Minnesota)
TENNESSEE (vs. Indianapolis)
MIAMI (vs. Buffalo)
NY JETS (vs. Baltimore)
DETROIT (vs. Washington)
CINCINNATI (vs. Cleveland)
JACKSONVILLE (vs. Oakland)
SAN FRANCISCO (vs. Tampa Bay)
ATLANTA (vs. San Diego)
ARIZONA (vs. Seattle)
I already took out the teams I’ve already chosen this season, and next are usually the divisional matchups. But I can’t discount any team playing the winless Cleveland Browns, so I’ll keep Cincinnati in play. Next I take out teams with losing records because if you’ve lost more games than you’ve won, your odds of winning this week aren’t great. Again, I’m going to keep the Bengals in play here, though, because they’re playing THE BROWNS.
That leaves me with four possibilities this week, but it’s really just three, because even though they’re playing the Browns, the Bengals have two strikes against them, and the Browns have to win at least once this year, right? Maybe. Sticking with my metrics, the Bengals are out. And I never pick against an unbeaten team, so the Eagles are out as well. Those eliminations whittle down my selection to the final two: Detroit, and Atlanta.
While the Lions have looked good of late, so have the Redskins, and they travel well. The Chargers beat a listless Broncos team last week, but traveling cross country to take on a red hot Matt Ryan at home, that’s the one with the biggest possibility of victory.